Real Estate Market Update 3rd Quarter 2025

Background Economic Conditions and Outlook

According to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) in its September 2025 meetings reported its unanimous decision to retain its policy rate at 5.75% citing continuous low inflation and global uncertainties. The Country reflected a record low headline inflation in August of 1.2% while the core inflation remains within BOJ’s target range of 4- 6 per cent. Three keys’ factors contributing to the low headline inflation were:

1. The recovery of the agricultural sector from the impact of the 2024 hurricane Beryl that resulted in lower food prices.
2. The reduction in General Consumption Tax (GCT) on electricity consumption.
3. The reduced effect of the past transportation cost in the public transportation sector.

Notwithstanding, BOJ considered the factors to be temporary shocks and has projected that the headline inflation will return within the target range by March 2026.

Reports from the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) for the quarter showed that in the short-term – (July-September) the economy is expected to grow by 2- 3 per cent while its fiscal year projection of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remains between 1 – 2 per cent. Their decision is largely associated with key sectors rebounding from the effect of hurricane Beryl. Preliminary data for July 2025 showed an increase in alumina production by 18.3%, increase in agricultural production of several crop groups. In addition, the economy has been experiencing.

1. High levels of employment
2. Improved business and consumer confidence
3. Ongoing retooling and capacity expansion in the manufacturing, accommodation and food services industries.

However, the potential risks are not ignored, namely:

1. The possibility of adverse weather conditions that may disrupt production activities
   in key sectors.
2. Weakened external demand because of disruption in trade caused by the impact
   of the imposed tariffs by the U.S.A.

The Real Estate Sector

The construction industry continues to show growth based on April-June reports by the PIOJ which revealed a 1.6 per cent increase in the sector. The National Housing Trust was the main contributor with its new starts of 2,077 homes in the Longville Park housing scheme. Several Gleaner articles during the quarter revealed investors’ intention to contribute to the growing sector, and just to highlight a few:

1. Steven Jackson in July highlighted a large-scale mixed-use development in White Horses, St Thomas by New Rozelle Properties. The company plans to build 917 residential units on 150-acres which will be done in five phases starting in 2026, pending approval by the National Environment and Planning Agency.
2. Janet Silvera in August, she highlighted the development plans of Moon Palace Grand Montego Bay by Palace Resorts and its intention to invest in housing; already the company has secured 28 acres of land to build staff housing.
3. Steven Jackson, in August reported that Progressive Grocers of Jamaica indicated its plan to build a 7,607 square meter commercial complex at Windsor Estate, St Ann and the reporter highlighted in September the on-going plans of Barita Investments Limited to commence its development of light-warehouse and a mixed-use complex (subject to approvals) in 2026.

The sector is expected to continue a positive growth path in 2026 based on upcoming Government-funded infrastructure projects such as the Montego Bay perimeter road and other significant private investments.

C. Patterson/WIHCON Properties Limited ‘October 16,, 2025