Real Estate Market Update 2nd Quarter 2025
Background Economic Conditions and Outlook
A review of the Monetary Policy Discussion and Decision (MPD) of May and June 2025 revealed that the country’s inflation rate since September 2024 continues within the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) target range of 4 – 6 per cent. Reports from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reflected an increase of the annual Headline inflation of 5.2 per cent while Core inflation (excluding prices of agricultural food products and fuel from the consumer price index) was 4.6 per cent in May 2025. The stable and relatively low Headline inflation reflects the non-recurrence of price increases for regulated items such as bus and taxi fares.
Meanwhile, the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) growth fell in the range of -1.0 per cent to -0.5 per cent for the fiscal year 2024/2025 but has a positive outlook for the fiscal year 2025/2026 with the expected growth ranging between 1.0 per cent to 3.0 per cent. This expectation is due to the stability in the mining, tourism and construction sectors. However, not to be ignored is the uncertainty of the rapid policies changes of the United States and the global economy which does have implications for the domestic economy outlook.
An overview of its short-term prospects and developments can be divided into two categories:
The Upside Potentials
- Continued strengthening of most industries
- Favourable weather conditions
- Relatively high employment levels and consumer confidence
The Downside Risks – “Drag on Growth”
- Unplanned factory downtime associated with aged plant and machinery
- Lower than anticipated demand for Jamaica goods and services
The Real Estate Sector
The sector continues to reflect a strong growth in both the residential and commercial markets. A quick view of the sector showed that developers and investors remain optimistic, but notably there is still the challenge of affordability. According to a gleaner article by Luke Douglas, while there is evidence of new housing development particularly in Kingston, many home seekers are unable to purchase these properties. The writer highlighted Real Estate Developer – Michael Lake’s view that the state housing agency – National Housing Trust (NHT) should seek to procure large parcels of land within the city, in depressed communities, and partner with developers to aid in ‘transforming the urban texture.’ In support of Lake’s view, Lawyer John Leiba emphasized that financing from the NHT would lower the price of housing to purchasers in these areas which would reduce the need to increase the housing stock in St Catherine. However, the difficulty as explained by Brian Saunders of the Trust is to identify large enough parcels of land to undertake a reasonable size development to make a positive impact; for example, the ability to build 400 units versus 20 units.
Looking in another location, Elias ‘Lee’ Issa – businessman and hotelier is set to build a multi-family development in Rutland Pen, Norman Manley Boulevard, Negril thus increasing the housing stock in that parish and possibly answer to the call of the growing residential demand of hospitality workers. In St Mary, Jamaica Producers Group Limited (JPG) is planning to subdivide some of its land for residential and commercial developments. According to Jeffrey Hall, Managing Director of JPG, the plan is to put 60-acre to market for investors to build 30 villas on the beach access property while the mixed-use commercial complex will be constructed by the company on 10 acres in Agualta Vale.
C. Patterson/WIHCON Properties Limited ‘July 15, 2025
