Real Estate Market Update 4th Quarter 2025

Background Economic Conditions and Outlook

Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Assessment

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) has decided to maintain the overnight policy rate at 5.75% for the current reporting quarter.

Revised Economic Growth Forecast

A significant contraction in the Island’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is now anticipated, representing a notable downward revision from earlier projections. This revised forecast is primarily attributed to the negative economic impact of Hurricane Melissa. The hurricane has caused widespread damage, disrupting production and consumer activity across nearly all major sectors of the economy.

Sectoral Outlook and Key Challenges

• Domestic Crop Production: Growth in this vital sector is now expected to experience a marked slowdown over the period spanning December 2026 to September 2027. The primary factors for this deceleration are the extensive damage to crops and farm infrastructure caused by Hurricane Melissa. Recovery will depend heavily on the timely provision of agricultural support and the restoration of key irrigation and road networks.
• Tourism and Hospitality: The tourism sector is projected to face challenges that will restrain immediate performance. A key constraint is the current, critical shortage of available hotel rooms, a direct result of damage sustained during the hurricane. However, the medium-term outlook remains positive, with a strong rebound anticipated by the fourth quarter of 2026, contingent upon the rapid completion of repairs and the resumption of full operational capacity across major resort areas.

The Real Estate Sector

With the hard hit in October 2025 by Hurricane Melissa much of the infrastructure, particularly on the western end of the Island, was devastated, many structures were partial or destroyed. For many affected Jamaicans rebuilding has begun. According to Luke Douglas of the Gleaner, there has been an increase in the sales of zinc sheeting, plywood and lumber. However, an examination of the devastation revealed that the construction of many buildings did not adhere to the Island’s building code and there is no regulation in place. The draft regulation prepared a year ago by the Bureau of Standards Jamaica Building Code Committee is yet to be approved by the Ministry of Local Government.

The hurricane also negatively impacted the insurance industry. Steven Jackson of the Gleaner highlighted that property losses could range between US$2.2 billion and US$4.2 billion but these figures are yet to be confirmed by the verification from location insurance and authorities.

In the meantime, as a part of the rebuilding exercise, the option of container homes for the homeless family, many of whom now live in tent cities or school shelters, is considered a ‘quick fix’. According to Janet Silvera of the Gleaner, these homes are

1. Fast to Deploy
2. Cost-Effective
3. Built for durability
4. Scalable for repaid sheltering: (on a 5-acre property up to 300 units can be installed)
5. Equipped with modern utilities
6. Private, dignified living (unlike the tent cities)
7. Flexible for long-term use

C. Patterson/WIHCON Properties Limited – January 19, 2026
Despite the challenges, real estate investors remain positive and are proceeding with their development plans. For example, Sygnus Real Estate Finance Limited continues to develop the One Belmont commercial property which currently has two (2) tenants in place and two (2) additional floors set to be outfitted by the summer of 2026. There is ongoing discussion in regard to its residential Mammee, St Ann property and its Lakes Pen, St Catherine – 55 acres awaiting regulatory approval to commence construction in early 2026.

C. Patterson/WIHCON Properties Limited January 19, 2026